Notes & methodology
Write-ups on what attention data can and can't tell us about markets, signal post-mortems, and how we think about building Orpail honestly.
How to Find Stocks and Crypto Gaining Attention on Social Media (2026)
A practical 2026 guide to spotting which stocks and crypto are gaining attention across social media, forums and news, and how to do it without getting fooled by hype.
Best Tools to Track Social Media Attention for Stocks and Crypto (2026)
An honest comparison of the main tools for tracking social media attention on stocks and crypto in 2026, what each one does well, and how to tell attention tracking apart from prediction.
Why We Don't Predict Prices
Most social tools promise to forecast the next move. We tested that promise ourselves and chose not to make it. Here is why honesty is the product at Orpail.
What Is Social Heat? A Plain-English Explainer
Social Heat is a 0 to 100 score for how much attention an asset is getting. Here is exactly what goes into it, what it means, and what it deliberately does not.
What GameStop Really Taught Us About Market Attention
The GameStop saga is misremembered as proof that social media predicts stocks. Here is what it actually demonstrated about market attention, and what it did not.
Social Sentiment and the Stock Market: What Actually Moves Price
A clear, honest guide to social sentiment and the stock market: what it is, whether it predicts prices, why attention matters more than mood, and how to read it.
How to Track Reddit and Social Mentions for Stocks
A practical guide to tracking Reddit and social mentions for stocks: what to watch, the manual methods and their limits, and how to read the signal without the hype.
Why Most AI Stock-Prediction Tools Sell You Noise
AI stock-prediction tools promise an edge from social data. Here is why most of that edge is noise dressed up as signal, and what an honest version looks like.
Does Social Media Sentiment Predict Stock Prices?
Can social media sentiment predict stock prices? Here is what the research actually shows, and why where attention goes may matter more than how the crowd feels.
Attention vs Sentiment: Why How Much Beats How Positive
Social sentiment is noisy and backward-looking. Attention, how much, how fast, how broadly something is discussed, is the cleaner market signal. Here is why.